Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb033…9e1b other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$160 (+2%) realized +$346 · open −$186
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%29W / 64L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$53
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$381
politics 24% −$46
sports 9% −$138
world 7% +$11
crypto 5% −$129
finance 4% +$4
economics 2% −$49
culture 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.6% -19.1% 33% 0% -23.5%
≤30d 13 +10.9% +0.4% 38% 23% -13.8%
≤90d 78 -42.4% -47.9% 19% 14% -24.0%
all 93 -1.9% -11.2% 31% 25% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 25% -8.0%
10% -19.7% 20% -16.8%
15% -27.5% 20% -24.8%
20% -34.6% 17% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$19 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$346
Unrealized−$186
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses29 / 64
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)93 / 102
History coverage215d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+55%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $41 −$6 -15%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 11 $60 −$14 -23%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 07 $119 −$34 -28%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $132 $0 -0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election May 30 $219 −$2 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $74 −$73 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $20 +$63 +308%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? May 27 $74 −$1 -2%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? May 26 $75 +$15 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 21 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $214 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next YouTube video? May 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $453 −$9 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 14 $88 −$4 -5%
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? May 14 $60 −$1 -2%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$23 +114%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 08 $192 −$10 -5%
Will the DHS shutdown end between May 18-24 2026? Apr 29 $63 −$58 -92%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $26 −$25 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $248 −$26 -10%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 28 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $162 −$21 -13%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 24? Apr 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? Apr 22 $67 +$12 +18%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $46 −$46 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $166 −$18 -11%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 16 $55 +$35 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brett M. Kavanaugh attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John G. Roberts attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anna Gasser (AUT) win the gold medal for Snowboard Big Air - Wome Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Barstool After Dark: Will the crew bowl a 300? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 30? Apr 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Apr 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Apr 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 7¢ $35 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 2h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 46h
Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-0 BUY 5¢ $10 4d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $46 4d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $60 4d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Viktor Gyökeres record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 6d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $32 8d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 10d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 10d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $47 10d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 10d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $38 10d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 11d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 11d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 11d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 11d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $47 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $53 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $70 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $71 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.25 · official $68.25 · 517 history records