Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb035…a4bb other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$10
politics 22% −$5
sports 18% −$39
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 111 -3.1% -12.3% 10% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -9.8%
10% -20.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage132d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $166 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $197 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $352 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $376 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $145 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $488 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $384 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $346 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $381 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $358 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $206 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $169 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $145 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $193 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $173 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $393 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $346 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $213 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $350 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $145 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $204 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $323 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $215 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $154 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $354 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $390 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $166 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $166 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $140 25d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $140 28d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 28d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 29d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $197 31d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $197 33d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $147 62d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $147 63d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $170 63d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $170 63d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $144 64d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $144 64d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $169 64d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $169 64d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $145 64d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $145 64d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $164 65d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $164 65d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $167 65d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $167 65d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $171 65d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $171 65d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 65d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 65d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $201 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.00 · official $27.00 (match) · 318 history records