Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb037…d2f9 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,821 (-2%) realized −$1,823 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$858per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$985now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$301
politics 34% −$10
sports 13% −$1,520
culture 3% −$5
crypto 2% +$4
economics 2% −$3
finance 1% +$18
world 1% −$13
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 52 -2.0% -11.3% 10% 0% -12.2%
all 137 +0.8% -8.8% 20% 10% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 10% -10.9%
10% -17.5% 10% -19.5%
15% -25.5% 8% -27.2%
20% -32.8% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,274) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$23 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$985
Realized−$1,823
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage164d
Avg bet$858
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $673 $675 +$2 (+0%)
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $311 $311 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $279 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $212 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,786 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,813 −$3 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,108 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,757 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $920 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $239 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $420 $0 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,036 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,516 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $498 +$1 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $353 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $433 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $754 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,760 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $4,064 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,866 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,091 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $201 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 08 $1,511 −$1,511 -100%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $189 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 07 $63 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $1,240 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $311 1h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $279 1h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $279 4h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $212 5h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $212 7h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $200 46h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $200 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $315 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $315 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $312 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $312 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $312 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $312 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $301 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $301 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $673 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $789 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $790 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $851 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $853 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $751 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $752 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $710 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $711 15d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $640 15d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $640 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $655 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $656 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $242 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $679 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $985.38 · official $985.38 (match) · 393 history records