Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb03c…b352 crypto 389 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$905 (+1%) realized +$1,050 · open −$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%188W / 196L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$253est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$952
7 days+$1,466
14 days+$1,442
30 days+$1,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$368
crypto 34% −$756
finance 12% +$1,513
other 6% +$571
politics 1% −$292
world 0% −$13
tech 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +71.4% +55.1% 55% 55% +56.9%
≤30d 29 +39.0% +25.7% 48% 45% +17.8%
≤90d 175 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 38% -19.9%
all 384 +1.3% -8.3% 49% 46% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 46% -8.2%
10% -17.1% 43% -17.0%
15% -25.1% 40% -25.0%
20% -32.5% 36% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$129 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized+$1,050
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses188 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$253
Open positions3
Markets (closed)384 / 389
History coverage154d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $368 $350 −$18 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET Down 40¢ 5¢ $120 $16 −$104 (-86%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET Jun 27 $125 −$120 -96%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos Jun 27 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $99 −$99 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $60 +$140 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $56 +$144 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $96 +$203 +212%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $97 −$96 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $451 +$612 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $79 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $85 +$115 +134%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $270 +$214 +79%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $54 +$256 +475%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Spain to score fir Jun 22 $35 +$18 +52%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$26 +264%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 20 $44 −$24 -54%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $381 −$381 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $135 −$132 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $283 −$280 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $276 +$427 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $193 +$179 +93%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $15 +$1 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $44 −$39 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 26 $18 +$28 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 26 $13 +$5 +37%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants May 26 $8 +$6 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1PM ET May 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11AM ET May 23 $12 +$24 +200%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $413 −$406 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1AM ET Apr 22 $123 −$123 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 22 $352 −$225 -64%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 22 $182 +$170 +93%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $400 −$218 -54%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. LG Twins Apr 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $275 −$75 -27%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $342 −$341 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $100 +$71 +71%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $170 +$101 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 17 $1,000 −$819 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11? Apr 11 $600 −$570 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $111 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $72 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos BUY Kiwoom Heroes 28¢ $102 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 40¢ $104 20h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 50¢ $54 21h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 54¢ $52 21h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 54¢ $1 21h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 54¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $47 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $200 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.52 · official $372.52 (match) · 1170 history records