Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb03c…eec4 other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$260 (-14%) realized −$275 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%11W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days−$251
14 days−$337
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$279
crypto 16% −$49
sports 8% −$42
world 1% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-53.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -47.4% -52.4% 15% 15% -25.9%
≤30d 76 -48.1% -53.0% 14% 14% -30.2%
≤90d 76 -48.1% -53.0% 14% 14% -30.2%
all 76 -48.1% -53.0% 14% 14% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.0% 14% -30.2%
10% -57.5% 13% -36.9%
15% -61.6% 12% -43.0%
20% -65.4% 9% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$16 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$275
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses11 / 65
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 86
History coverage8d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 38¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-35%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$4 +17%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$18 +172%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 +$49 +474%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $23 −$23 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $58 +$14 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $10 +$25 +250%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $23 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $74 +$168 +226%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $69 +$27 +40%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 18h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 18h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 23h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 23h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 23h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $58 37h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Senegal vs. Ir BUY 2¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 37h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Norway vs. Franc BUY 11¢ $25 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.99 · official $243.99 (match) · 105 history records