Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B0 0xb03d…6da6 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,894 (-53%) realized −$1,338 · open −$556
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,191per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$1,851
world 6% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-65.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -52.1% -56.7% 0% 0% -56.7%
≤30d 2 -61.3% -65.0% 0% 0% -58.0%
≤90d 2 -61.3% -65.0% 0% 0% -58.0%
all 2 -61.3% -65.0% 0% 0% -58.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.0% 0% -58.0%
10% -68.4% 0% -62.0%
15% -71.4% 0% -65.7%
20% -74.2% 0% -69.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$723 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized−$1,338
Unrealized−$556
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1,191
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $849 $292 −$556 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,484 −$1,295 -52%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $215 −$152 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $686 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $188 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1,189 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $63 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,188 16d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $295 16d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $215 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.47 · official $292.47 (match) · 24 history records