Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B0 0xb040…dbea crypto 1479 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$589 (-2%) realized −$589 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%867W / 612L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$569
14 days−$314
30 days−$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,057
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 53% -22.4%
≤30d 275 +37.3% +24.2% 82% 69% -12.2%
≤90d 1479 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 55% -15.2%
all 1479 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 55% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 55% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 44% -23.3%
15% -30.1% 29% -30.7%
20% -37.0% 22% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses867 / 612
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1479 / 1479
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1479 Trades
no open positions (479 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$28 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$15 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$20 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$31 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$64 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records