Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb040…a5c5 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,071 (+19%) realized +$2,071 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$519
7 days−$130
14 days+$57
30 days+$1,041
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$2,338
other 32% −$403
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +17.6% +6.4% 57% 57% -12.3%
≤30d 26 +11.5% +0.9% 58% 58% +0.9%
≤90d 37 +6.3% -3.9% 59% 59% +6.3%
all 37 +6.3% -3.9% 59% 59% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 59% +6.3%
10% -13.1% 51% -3.8%
15% -21.5% 35% -13.1%
20% -29.2% 30% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$173 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,071
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage37d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$109 +107%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $472 +$87 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $382 +$86 +23%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $111 +$274 +246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $90 +$22 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$112 -56%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $586 −$480 -82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $257 −$32 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$317 +156%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $948 +$273 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $748 +$184 +25%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 06 $308 −$308 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $707 +$218 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $549 +$268 +49%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $151 +$202 +133%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $204 −$180 -88%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $192 +$141 +73%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $220 +$275 +125%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $506 −$473 -93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1,019 +$1,020 +100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $386 +$298 +77%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $301 +$51 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $402 +$287 +71%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $304 +$99 +32%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $132 +$96 +73%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $208 +$82 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $150 +$32 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $211 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $59 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $559 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $472 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $469 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $382 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $385 41h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $111 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $111 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $90 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $90 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 12¢ $106 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $232 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $225 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $354 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $521 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $204 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $257 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $230 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $9 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $88 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $11 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $13 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records