Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B0
0xb042…14f3
other · 385 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,006 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,238 · open −$210
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,034
Realized+$4,238
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses148 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions24
Markets (closed)361 / 385
Avg bet$500
Trades / day79.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 24 History 361 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$530
14 days+$2,224
30 days+$4,743
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 90¢ 74¢ $627 $521 −$105 (-17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 59¢ 52¢ $118 $103 −$15 (-13%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 31¢ 21¢ $93 $63 −$30 (-32%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 18¢ $60 $53 −$8 (-13%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 45¢ 43¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-3%)
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? No 72¢ 55¢ $36 $27 −$9 (-24%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 72¢ 54¢ $36 $27 −$9 (-25%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 45¢ 40¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No 54¢ 48¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? No 78¢ 71¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-9%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 14¢ 11¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-18%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No 81¢ 84¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-49%)
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ 12¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 57¢ 44¢ $11 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 48¢ 43¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? No 32¢ 18¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 58¢ 81¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Kelly Ayotte win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Republican primary election? No 10¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? No 17¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 37¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 26¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $447 +$3 +1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $462 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1,977 +$21 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $283 +$5 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $186 +$13 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $23 −$11 -48%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 11 $332 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $476 +$9 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,076 +$106 +10%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 11 $27 −$7 -27%
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic p Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $315 −$2 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $150 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $183 +$2 +1%
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $43 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $77 +$17 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $974 +$17 +2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $294 $0 -0%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $189 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 10 $18 $0 -1%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $525 +$95 +18%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 09 $178 −$6 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $27 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $677 +$20 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $389 +$10 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,529 +$54 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $1,042 +$72 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $597 +$25 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $197 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $156 −$3 -2%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $391 +$2 +1%
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary Jun 06 $46 −$4 -8%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 06 $37 −$3 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $103 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 06 $15 −$6 -40%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series Jun 06 $22 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $727 +$182 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 92% +$4,620
world 3% −$53
politics 2% −$149
tech 1% −$143
finance 1% −$36
sports 0% −$36
culture 0% −$63
crypto 0% −$68
economics 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? BUY No 81¢ $16 8m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 90¢ $450 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $14 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $174 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $38 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $65 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $9 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $114 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $150 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $150 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 91¢ $273 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $457 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $61 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $12 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $12 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $87 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $262 5h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $0 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $4 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $28 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 84¢ $1 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 84¢ $30 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 84¢ $9 7h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 84¢ $3 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY No 83¢ $42 8h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 8h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $5 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $34 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -8.8% -17.5% 51% 8% -6.3%
≤30d 257 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 9% -7.2%
≤90d 361 -8.3% -17.0% 41% 9% -7.5%
all 361 -8.3% -17.0% 41% 9% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 9% -7.5%
10% -24.9% 4% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -32.2% 3% -24.4%
20% -38.8% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,034.20 · official $1,037.20 (match) · 3500 history records