Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb044…e425 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$191 (-19%) realized −$192 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$132
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$197
tech 4% +$1
culture 3% $0
world 3% +$1
other 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -65.1% -68.4% 25% 25% -77.6%
≤90d 14 -7.4% -16.2% 71% 57% -30.8%
all 20 -9.8% -18.4% 75% 40% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 40% -28.6%
10% -26.2% 30% -35.5%
15% -33.3% 25% -41.7%
20% -39.9% 10% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$76 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage178d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 66¢ 66¢ $90 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 17 $134 −$132 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 10 $150 −$149 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $75 +$30 +40%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $68 −$68 -99%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge May 19 $80 +$50 +62%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $91 +$48 +52%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 13 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 13 $13 +$3 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 13 $18 $0 +1%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 13 $44 +$16 +38%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 13 $50 +$14 +29%
76ers vs. Knicks May 13 $54 +$22 +40%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 17 $30 −$29 -99%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 04 $18 $0 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 03 $15 $0 +3%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Trump's new travel ban on Palestinians removed by January 31? Feb 03 $20 $0 +2%
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 10 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.18 · official $90.18 (match) · 36 history records