Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B0 0xb046…857c other 246 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$43,619 (+43%) realized +$42,834 · open +$785
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate78%160W / 46L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$410per market
Trades / day110.6pace
Fees−$418est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$16,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$6,093
sports 21% +$2,933
crypto 2% +$770
politics 1% −$265
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -8.5% -17.2% 68% 28% -12.2%
≤30d 206 +34.1% +21.3% 78% 48% -0.3%
≤90d 206 +34.1% +21.3% 78% 48% -0.3%
all 206 +34.1% +21.3% 78% 48% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.3% 48% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here +9.7% 33% -9.8%
15% -0.9% 28% -18.5%
20% -10.6% 24% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +65% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$284 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$16,875
Realized+$42,834
Unrealized+$785
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses160 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$418
Open positions42
Markets (closed)206 / 246
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$410
Trades / day110.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 40¢ $2,593 $2,543 −$50 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 27¢ $1,994 $1,955 −$39 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,623 $1,777 +$155 (+10%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 40¢ $1,631 $1,510 −$121 (-7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $653 $1,426 +$774 (+119%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $1,275 $1,237 −$37 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 32¢ $919 $1,159 +$240 (+26%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 16¢ $1,055 $914 −$141 (-13%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? No 22¢ 31¢ $626 $871 +$245 (+39%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $621 $616 −$6 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 24¢ $650 $612 −$37 (-6%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 56¢ 51¢ $564 $513 −$51 (-9%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 6¢ $270 $247 −$22 (-8%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $187 $183 −$4 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 72¢ $163 $173 +$10 (+6%)
Will Colombia be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 80¢ 86¢ $157 $168 +$11 (+7%)
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 41¢ 86¢ $66 $139 +$73 (+111%)
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $120 $120 +$1 (+1%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 28¢ $88 $105 +$17 (+20%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $76 $89 +$12 (+16%)
Will Serena Williams Play at Wimbledon 2026? No 3¢ 10¢ $27 $84 +$58 (+217%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $278 $71 −$207 (-74%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $75 $67 −$8 (-10%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $41 $46 +$5 (+12%)
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $756 −$756 -100%
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 19 $1,450 +$58 +4%
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $702 +$56 +8%
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 18 $153 +$7 +5%
Will Algeria be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 18 $23 +$10 +43%
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup Jun 18 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $495 +$45 +9%
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 17 $145 +$28 +19%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $25 +$115 +459%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $352 +$448 +127%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $266 −$241 -91%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 17 $370 −$370 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $383 −$383 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $348 −$348 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Jun 17 $2,045 +$335 +16%
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $263 +$21 +8%
Will France win the World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands - Completed ma Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 16 $255 −$50 -19%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 16 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $425 −$425 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 16 $308 −$308 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil Jun 16 $456 −$456 -100%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 16 $1,926 −$781 -41%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 16 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,079 +$197 +18%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $888 +$340 +38%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 16 $211 −$207 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $276 +$147 +53%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $452 +$298 +66%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,273 +$56 +4%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $299 +$351 +117%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3,587 +$1,172 +33%
Will Spain win the World Cup? Jun 15 $53 +$4 +8%
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group I? Jun 15 $63 +$4 +7%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $644 −$9 -1%
Will Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 15 $98 +$10 +10%
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $47 −$43 -92%
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $2,404 +$229 +10%
Will Argentina win the World Cup? Jun 15 $51 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 1h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 4h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 4h
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $2 5h
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $36 5h
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $128 5h
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $128 5h
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $128 5h
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $126 5h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $75 7h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 71¢ $31 7h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $4 9h
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $8 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $89 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $0 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $0 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $28 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $60 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $6 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,875.32 · official $16,880.03 (match) · 3500 history records