Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B0 0xb048…7f07 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$170 (+1%) realized +$202 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$811per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$213
sports 20% +$421
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 55% -4.6%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 55% -4.6%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 55% -4.6%
all 11 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 55% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 55% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 36% -13.8%
15% -26.3% 18% -22.1%
20% -33.6% 9% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$416 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,424
Realized+$202
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$811
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $650 $645 −$5 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 24¢ 22¢ $240 $215 −$25 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $185 $184 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $137 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $126 $126 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $450 +$440 +98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $347 +$86 +25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $873 +$126 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,622 −$85 -5%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $330 −$281 -85%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,822 +$793 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,320 +$553 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $660 +$328 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $330 −$242 -73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,408 −$1,055 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $438 35m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $15 37m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $16 37m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $22 38m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $16 38m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $2 42m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $1 43m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $1 43m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $216 43m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $9 43m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $71 43m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $69 44m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $3 44m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $10 44m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $245 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 44¢ $433 56m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $379 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $70 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $347 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $873 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $657 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $190 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $129 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $121 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $141 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $990 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $156 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 87¢ $179 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 87¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,424.00 · official $1,414.00 (match) · 90 history records