Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb04a…f3b4 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,301 (-52%) realized −$3,301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$187
14 days−$589
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$2,201
other 27% −$589
finance 16% −$514
crypto 9% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -43.9% -49.2% 0% 0% -49.2%
≤30d 2 -37.7% -43.6% 0% 0% -40.9%
≤90d 48 -18.0% -25.8% 31% 23% -56.9%
all 48 -18.0% -25.8% 31% 23% -56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 23% -56.9%
10% -32.9% 15% -61.0%
15% -39.4% 12% -64.8%
20% -45.3% 8% -68.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$103 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage81d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $426 −$187 -44%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $1,274 −$402 -32%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? May 09 $12 −$10 -83%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 09 $996 −$514 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 05 $45 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 05 $11 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 05 $111 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 05 $19 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 05 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 05 $22 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 05 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 05 $22 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 05 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 05 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 05 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 05 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 05 $33 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 05 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 05 $11 +$19 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 05 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 05 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 05 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 05 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 05 $15 +$5 +31%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $3,099 −$2,200 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 04 $7 +$4 +65%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 03 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 03 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 03 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 03 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 03 $11 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 03 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 03 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 03 $3 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $239 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $426 8d
New pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $428 8d
New pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $444 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? SELL No 2¢ $0 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? BUY No 17¢ $2 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? SELL No 4¢ $2 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? BUY No 19¢ $10 44d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,019 45d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $155 46d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? SELL No 19¢ $482 74d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? BUY No 38¢ $996 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $105 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records