trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -39.4% | -45.2% | 60% | 0% | -90.3% |
| all | 16 | -37.0% | -43.0% | 62% | 0% | -83.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -43.0% | 0% | -83.7% |
| 10% | -48.5% | 0% | -85.3% |
| 15% | -53.5% | 0% | -86.7% |
| 20% | -58.0% | 0% | -88.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $148 | −$146 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 08 | $160 | −$158 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 20 | $44 | −$44 | -98% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | May 20 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Apr 18 | $246 | −$240 | -98% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 3? | Apr 18 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? | Apr 18 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? | Apr 18 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 18 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? | Apr 18 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Mar 18 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? | Mar 02 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 02 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January? | Feb 02 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the | Jan 20 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) hit $375 before 2026?? | Jan 06 | $17 | $0 | +0% |