Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb04f…81d6 weather 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate63%79W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$34
other 13% −$8
finance 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 122 -35.9% -42.0% 62% 1% -13.1%
all 125 -34.9% -41.1% 63% 1% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 1% -12.9%
10% -46.8% 0% -21.2%
15% -51.9% 0% -28.8%
20% -56.6% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses79 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? Jun 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 20 Apr 28 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 20 Apr 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20? Apr 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? Apr 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 18? Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19? Apr 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on April 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19? Apr 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 19? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 18? Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 19? Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ap Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 15 Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 16? Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on April 16? Apr 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C or below on April 16? Apr 18 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 16 Apr 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 16? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 16? Apr 18 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 17? Apr 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on April 17? Apr 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on April 16? Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on April 16? Apr 18 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ap Apr 16 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 16? Apr 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on Apri Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 14 Apr 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ap Apr 15 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 14? Apr 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C or higher on April 1 Apr 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 14? Apr 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 14? Apr 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 13? Apr 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 13? Apr 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or below on April 13? Apr 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 12? Apr 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 12? Apr 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 12? Apr 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 13? Apr 13 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? BUY No 100¢ $87 20d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 59d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 20 BUY No 98¢ $10 59d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 20 BUY No 99¢ $15 60d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $11 60d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $14 61d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $13 61d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $12 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $11 61d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $11 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 316 history records