Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb051…b42a other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$328 (-0%) realized −$329 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%6W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,440per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$22
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$198
politics 40% −$86
world 5% −$9
economics 4% −$7
sports 3% −$67
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 +1.0% -8.6% 6% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -3.0% -12.2% 6% 4% -9.8%
all 104 -2.9% -12.1% 6% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 4% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,586) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$6 · ×5.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$680
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses6 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage93d
Avg bet$1,440
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $370 $371 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $309 $309 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,589 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,193 −$5 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $784 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,855 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $3,624 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $981 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,154 −$6 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $902 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,695 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,279 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,499 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $512 +$2 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,871 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $2,556 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,542 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 26 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $3,503 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $2,643 −$4 -0%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,109 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $950 −$1 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 19 $506 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $2,785 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $2,764 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $309 1h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $482 5h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $483 7h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $383 24h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $384 27h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $231 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $774 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $775 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $870 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $871 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $783 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $784 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $858 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $860 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $654 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $655 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $772 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $773 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $643 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $644 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $370 10d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $926 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $927 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $979 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $981 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,086 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,087 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $901 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $902 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $680.00 · official $680.00 (match) · 337 history records