Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb057…36b2 politics 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 666d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 76L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$14
other 23% −$4
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 78 -0.5% -10.0% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage666d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $53 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $55 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $56 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kyrie Irving lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
UK civil war in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
TikTok banned in the US in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benedict Mathurin win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jaden Ivey win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
200-219 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC East? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will NC State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? Nov 18 $0 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 18 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 15h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $53 20d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 21d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $55 28d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $55 28d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 37d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 37d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $55 47d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $55 48d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 53d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 54d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $56 71d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $56 72d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 75d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 76d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 95d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 96d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $56 97d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $56 98d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 102d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 103d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 103d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 104d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $56 107d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $56 108d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $56 112d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $56 113d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 115d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records