Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:50:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb058…8063 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$47
sports 18% −$1
other 15% −$6
economics 10% $0
politics 8% −$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 +6.8% -3.4% 22% 11% -7.7%
≤90d 35 +5.2% -4.8% 20% 9% -8.6%
all 44 +1.6% -8.1% 25% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 9% -8.8%
10% -16.9% 9% -17.5%
15% -24.9% 7% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage529d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $228 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $74 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $148 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $81 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $125 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $147 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $66 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $115 −$2 -2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $73 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $65 −$2 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $152 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $72 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $233 −$2 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $35 +$46 +130%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $7 −$1 -12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1 +$1 +52%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $379 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $299 −$2 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $74 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $307 +$1 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 20 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Apr 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Feb 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 9? Feb 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Bills beat the Broncos by 9 or more points? Jan 13 $2 +$2 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $21 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $13 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $60 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $46 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $18 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $74 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $73 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $81 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $81 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $81 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $82 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $74 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.84 · official $29.84 (match) · 218 history records