Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb05d…dcdc other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,839 (-45%) realized −$6,028 · open +$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$5,437
sports 8% −$369
crypto 2% −$163
world 1% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -20.8% -28.4% 26% 26% -60.7%
≤30d 42 -20.8% -28.4% 26% 26% -60.7%
≤90d 42 -20.8% -28.4% 26% 26% -60.7%
all 42 -20.8% -28.4% 26% 26% -60.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 26% -60.7%
10% -35.2% 26% -64.4%
15% -41.5% 26% -67.9%
20% -47.2% 19% -71.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$298 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,272
Realized−$6,028
Unrealized+$189
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions9
Markets (closed)42 / 51
History coverage6d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $200 $496 +$296 (+148%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 28¢ 70¢ $100 $252 +$152 (+152%)
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 18¢ $400 $179 −$221 (-55%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $82 $76 −$5 (-7%)
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $79 $41 −$38 (-48%)
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $107 +$457 +429%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $213 +$44 +20%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $118 −$110 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $187 −$176 -94%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $97 −$91 -94%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $532 +$1,648 +310%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $532 −$500 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $106 −$100 -95%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$55 +555%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$100 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $214 −$200 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $855 −$800 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $510 +$387 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,645 −$2,645 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,516 −$3,064 -87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $106 +$108 +102%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $107 +$83 +78%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$17 -16%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $107 +$205 +192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $106 36m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $107 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $263 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $106 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $107 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $106 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 8h
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $423 17h
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 17h
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 17h
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $45 17h
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 17h
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 18h
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $564 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $107 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $107 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $230 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $107 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 30h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $107 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $107 31h
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $34 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $81 43h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $97 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $107 43h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $107 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $107 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,271.80 · official $1,271.80 (match) · 77 history records