Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb05e…599a sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,196 (-39%) realized −$1,180 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$274
7 days−$1,096
14 days−$1,204
30 days−$1,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -37.5% -43.4% 34% 34% -54.3%
≤30d 33 -38.4% -44.3% 33% 33% -56.3%
≤90d 33 -38.4% -44.3% 33% 33% -56.3%
all 33 -38.4% -44.3% 33% 33% -56.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.3% 33% -56.3%
10% -49.6% 33% -60.5%
15% -54.5% 33% -64.3%
20% -59.0% 24% -67.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$77 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$684
Realized−$1,180
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage9d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) Indiana Fever 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5 Over 52¢ 51¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Washington Mystics 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Altmaier vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 45¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) Seattle Storm 54¢ 52¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 Jun 20 $98 +$81 +83%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Minaur vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 19 $101 +$87 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 17 $69 −$68 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $101 +$82 +80%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 16 $101 +$71 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 45¢ $102 14m
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Washington Mystics 52¢ $101 59m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $101 59m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) BUY Seattle Storm 54¢ $101 59m
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Indiana Fever 53¢ $101 59m
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 59m
Altmaier vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 66¢ $101 21h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 66¢ $101 21h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $101 29h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $102 29h
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) BUY New York Liberty 57¢ $101 29h
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 42h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $101 42h
Minaur vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 42h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 54¢ $98 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $102 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) BUY Indiana Fever 56¢ $69 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $102 3d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Seattle Storm 58¢ $101 4d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 53¢ $101 4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 51¢ $13 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $102 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $102 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $102 4d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 12¢ $103 5d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 55¢ $101 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $101 5d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 58¢ $101 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 58¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.47 · official $684.47 (match) · 51 history records