Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb05f…eeb2 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+4%) realized +$99 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%43W / 16L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$39
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$97
sports 19% −$65
world 2% +$10
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -32.0% -38.5% 50% 50% -53.6%
≤30d 9 -35.7% -41.8% 44% 44% -42.0%
≤90d 48 +0.3% -9.2% 73% 71% -8.6%
all 59 +4.6% -5.4% 73% 64% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 64% -6.6%
10% -14.4% 46% -15.6%
15% -22.7% 25% -23.7%
20% -30.3% 10% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$24 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses43 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage99d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $40 $31 −$8 (-21%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 81¢ 41¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Wi Jun 13 $20 −$19 -92%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +33%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$16 +52%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $30 +$14 +45%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $40 +$12 +30%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $40 +$8 +21%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $40 +$9 +23%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $40 −$40 -99%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $30 +$5 +15%
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? Apr 22 $40 −$4 -11%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $50 +$4 +9%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $50 +$12 +23%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $40 +$14 +35%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $40 +$5 +13%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $50 +$17 +34%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $30 +$13 +45%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $20 +$3 +13%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 03 $30 +$7 +22%
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $30 +$31 +102%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets Mar 29 $20 −$12 -62%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 28 $30 +$8 +28%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $50 −$28 -56%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 27 $40 +$16 +39%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $50 +$7 +14%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $80 −$15 -19%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 10d
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Wi SELL 3¢ $2 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 24¢ $41 10d
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Wi BUY 40¢ $20 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $27 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 12d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 30d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 31d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 84¢ $44 31d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 31d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 37d
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 38d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 38d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? SELL Yes 89¢ $10 42d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 42d
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 87¢ $14 44d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 89¢ $16 44d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 44d
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 44d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 45d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 45d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.43 · official $41.44 (match) · 122 history records