Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B0 0xb05f…4916 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$1
world 29% +$2
politics 19% $0
crypto 10% +$1
sports 8% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 0% -8.8%
all 31 +0.8% -8.8% 39% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.26 per $1 lost it wins $4.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage262d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 48¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $38 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $5 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 09 $2 +$1 +22%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 02 $13 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $34 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $29 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $37 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $1 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $31 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $17 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $15 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $33 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $33 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $4 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $29 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $33 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.46 · official $33.47 (match) · 108 history records