Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb064…12a0 sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$418 (+5%) realized +$405 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%29W / 37L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$325
politics 15% +$89
crypto 13% −$147
other 8% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -29.3% -36.0% 32% 32% -9.1%
≤30d 31 -29.3% -36.0% 32% 32% -9.1%
≤90d 31 -29.3% -36.0% 32% 32% -9.1%
all 66 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 41% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 41% -5.8%
10% -31.1% 41% -14.8%
15% -37.8% 36% -23.0%
20% -43.9% 30% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$72 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$405
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses29 / 37
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage236d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 40¢ 42¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$11 -21%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 −$30 -20%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $28 +$23 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$94 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $97 +$133 +137%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $152 +$123 +81%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 +$98 +64%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$141 +276%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$52 +129%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$41 +134%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 14? Nov 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 14 $1,399 +$89 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 12? Nov 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 13? Nov 12 $146 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $687 +$591 +86%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $383 −$383 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 9? Nov 09 $200 +$76 +38%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $753 +$221 +29%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 09 $66 −$6 -9%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $272 +$72 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 8? Nov 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 7? Nov 07 $318 +$160 +50%
Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025? Nov 07 $16 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $14 +$21 +153%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $50 +$29 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $22 +$14 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $85 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $204 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $35 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 15¢ $41 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $51 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 8h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 24¢ $66 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $31 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $71 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $116 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 24h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $51 24h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 54¢ $28 28h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 85¢ $230 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 41h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $97 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 96¢ $275 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $101 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 BUY Over $21 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.41 · official $297.41 (match) · 220 history records