Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb065…0288 crypto 459 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$349 (-6%) realized −$342 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%171W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$313
7 days+$343
14 days+$328
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$131
other 33% −$469
sports 12% +$135
world 0% $0
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +28.1% +15.9% 51% 51% +35.3%
≤30d 155 +1.4% -8.3% 48% 47% +5.1%
≤90d 403 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 35% -10.7%
all 445 -3.1% -12.4% 38% 37% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 37% -17.5%
10% -20.7% 35% -25.4%
15% -28.4% 29% -32.6%
20% -35.4% 22% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized−$342
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses171 / 274
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)445 / 459
History coverage128d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 70¢ $79 $77 −$2 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $73 +$63 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$25 +99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $65 +$21 +32%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 +$26 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $8 +$34 +414%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $33 +$44 +134%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$44 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$26 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 +$45 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$37 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$28 +549%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$12 +200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $75 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $75 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $91 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $80 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY 51¢ $203 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $43 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $136 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $25 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $25 22h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $65 22h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $25 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $31 37h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 57¢ $10 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 19¢ $8 45h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.37 · official $547.37 · 968 history records