Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb066…f0c6 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$13
politics 17% −$10
other 7% +$5
sports 1% −$3
economics 1% $0
tech 1% +$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +6.8% -3.4% 25% 8% -8.2%
≤90d 45 +4.6% -5.4% 31% 20% -9.3%
all 59 +3.4% -6.4% 29% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 15% -9.6%
10% -15.4% 14% -18.2%
15% -23.6% 12% -26.1%
20% -31.1% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage594d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 26 $6 +$5 +83%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $80 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $169 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 06 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $85 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$10 +165%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $8 +$5 +59%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 +$7 +79%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 02 $46 −$46 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $50 +$6 +12%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 139.5 Mar 27 $21 +$22 +103%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Mar 26 $37 +$29 +79%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 24 $23 +$7 +32%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 28 $95 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $89 +$7 +8%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 30 $13,529 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 2h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $17 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $17 29d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $6 29d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $15 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $15 30d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 31d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 31d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $83 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.77 · official $50.77 (match) · 263 history records