Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:52:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B0 0xb068…6aee crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$105 (+77%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +553% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +403% what you keep after slip
Net edge+403%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$131
sports 19% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+490.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +552.9% +490.8% 75% 75% +70.6%
≤30d 4 +552.9% +490.8% 75% 75% +70.6%
≤90d 4 +552.9% +490.8% 75% 75% +70.6%
all 4 +552.9% +490.8% 75% 75% +70.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +490.8% 75% +70.6%
10% ← realistic here +434.2% 75% +54.3%
15% +382.6% 75% +39.4%
20% +335.3% 75% +25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +98% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +553% · $-wt +98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$26 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.04 per $1 lost it wins $5.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$13 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$68 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $49 +$51 +104%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $38 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $14 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 26¢ $14 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 26¢ $4 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 26¢ $7 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 26¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records