Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B0 0xb069…0e1c world 284 markets active 0h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,998 (-9%) realized −$8,872 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%175W / 104L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days−$10,049
14 days−$9,843
30 days−$9,144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$8,401
other 12% −$598
crypto 7% +$15
finance 3% +$293
politics 3% −$639
sports 2% +$22
economics 1% +$354
weather 1% −$141
tech 0% −$64
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -34.2% -40.5% 35% 24% -52.1%
≤30d 64 -14.6% -22.7% 47% 27% -24.5%
≤90d 127 -5.6% -14.6% 58% 44% -23.0%
all 279 -3.8% -13.0% 63% 44% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 44% -18.3%
10% -21.3% 32% -26.1%
15% -28.9% 22% -33.2%
20% -35.9% 14% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$172 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$1,274
Realized−$8,872
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses175 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)279 / 284
History coverage252d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1,000 $1,008 +$8 (+1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 60¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 40¢ 18¢ $100 $44 −$56 (-56%)
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$20 +196%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$87 +43%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$28 -27%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $608 +$197 +32%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,009 +$241 +24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,501 +$28 +2%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $8 −$7 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $4,174 −$2,327 -56%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $54 +$69 +126%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 −$141 -28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$84 +41%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,111 +$531 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 16 $970 −$265 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 16 $1,955 −$1,879 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2,000 −$1,908 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2,600 −$2,524 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,201 −$763 -64%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$3 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $700 +$59 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $900 +$29 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$122 +120%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$82 -81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $3,300 +$160 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$144 +141%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5,284 +$15 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $20 +$23 +117%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1,000 −$96 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $1,000 −$215 -22%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $5 +$13 +250%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,000 +$113 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $6 +$9 +150%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $107 −$105 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 26m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $298 47m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $290 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 15h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $74 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $101 27h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $109 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $696 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 47h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,249 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,529 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,501 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $123 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $363 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,273.75 · official $1,273.75 (match) · 823 history records