Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb06b…10fa sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$728 (+10%) realized +$728 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%79W / 58L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$93
14 days+$540
30 days+$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$380
other 37% +$1,205
crypto 5% −$25
culture 0% −$10
politics 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.3% -29.7% 40% 40% -4.4%
≤30d 22 -27.5% -34.4% 36% 36% +0.5%
≤90d 49 +5.9% -4.2% 55% 55% +3.0%
all 137 +1.6% -8.1% 58% 57% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 57% +1.1%
10% -16.9% 54% -8.6%
15% -24.9% 46% -17.4%
20% -32.3% 38% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$39 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$728
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses79 / 58
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage107d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $300 +$430 +143%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $694 +$316 +46%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $331 −$325 -98%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 20 $220 −$217 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $110 −$110 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $226 −$223 -99%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $404 +$227 +56%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $891 +$1,008 +113%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $300 −$298 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $348 −$244 -70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $567 −$20 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $243 +$103 +42%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $102 +$58 +57%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $55 −$54 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $25 −$14 -54%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $25 +$26 +103%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $25 +$24 +93%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Valencia (-5.5) Jun 10 $16 −$16 -99%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $34 −$34 -99%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Struff (+1.5) Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $50 +$41 +83%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Apr 01 $33 +$14 +43%
Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Wong (+1.5) Apr 01 $100 +$76 +76%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Federico Agusti Mar 31 $70 −$70 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Liam Draxl Mar 31 $50 +$38 +76%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Damm (+1.5) Mar 31 $50 +$43 +86%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Dusan Lajovic Mar 31 $100 +$62 +62%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $10 −$1 -6%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Matteo Berrettini Mar 31 $100 −$99 -99%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Henrique Rocha vs Marco Trungelliti Mar 31 $20 −$20 -99%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Mackenzie McDonald vs Jenson Brooks Mar 31 $35 +$27 +77%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alex Bolt vs Yibing Wu Mar 31 $15 +$10 +68%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Jesper de Jong vs Yannick Hanfmann Mar 30 $20 +$12 +59%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Zhizhen Zh Mar 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Aleksandar Vukic vs Taha Baadi Mar 30 $20 +$43 +213%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto Mar 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5) Mar 30 $10 +$5 +47%
Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Mar 27 $10 +$8 +82%
Miami Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Arthur Fils Mar 27 $20 +$11 +56%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Open: Martin Landaluce vs Jiri Lehecka Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 24 $10 +$12 +122%
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensik Mar 24 $10 +$17 +170%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Open: Arthur Fils vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Mar 23 $10 +$6 +60%
Miami Open: Ethan Quinn vs Jiri Lehecka Mar 23 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $44 +$36 +82%
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Korda (+1.5) Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $730 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,010 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $694 7h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $300 7h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 46¢ $331 13h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 56¢ $220 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 76¢ $110 17h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $226 7d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 63¢ $404 7d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P SELL Yes 99¢ $1,899 7d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 46¢ $40 7d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 46¢ $305 7d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 45¢ $102 7d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 46¢ $444 7d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 76¢ $300 7d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 50¢ $48 7d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 50¢ $51 7d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 54¢ $149 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $547 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $567 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 70¢ $346 8d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 45¢ $62 8d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Katie Boulter 77¢ $159 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $243 8d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 71¢ $101 8d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 48¢ $102 8d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Pedro Martinez 61¢ $55 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $51 10d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 23¢ $12 10d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? SELL No 87¢ $52 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records