Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb073…54fb other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$269 (-4%) realized −$269 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$97
14 days−$176
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$12
other 30% −$150
finance 18% −$78
politics 9% −$38
economics 3% −$5
tech 2% −$9
sports 2% −$6
culture 1% −$1
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -10.5% -19.0% 2% 2% -17.0%
≤30d 86 -11.7% -20.1% 6% 1% -18.0%
≤90d 103 -9.9% -18.5% 9% 2% -14.0%
all 103 -9.9% -18.5% 9% 2% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 2% -14.0%
10% -26.3% 0% -22.2%
15% -33.4% 0% -29.7%
20% -39.9% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 94
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage64d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $42 +$5 +12%
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? Jun 15 $40 −$5 -12%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 14 $38 $0 -1%
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 14 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -24%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 14 $14 $0 -3%
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $18 −$15 -83%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 13 $16 $0 -1%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -4%
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gro Jun 13 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $12 −$3 -22%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 13 $31 −$6 -21%
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $13 −$4 -27%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -15%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? Jun 11 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 11 $46 −$3 -7%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $11 −$2 -21%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $16 −$2 -14%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 10 $37 $0 -1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 10 $34 −$4 -11%
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $93 −$1 -1%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $97 −$5 -5%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Jun 09 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B Jun 09 $40 −$15 -38%
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on I Jun 09 $45 −$4 -8%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B? Jun 09 $47 −$5 -10%
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 08 $13 −$10 -72%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Jun 07 $15 −$5 -30%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 07 $11 −$3 -27%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Jun 07 $38 −$8 -21%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? Jun 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 1h
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 94¢ $47 1h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 4h
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $42 4h
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? SELL Yes 70¢ $35 7h
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 13h
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 75¢ $37 18h
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 75¢ $38 18h
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch SELL No 70¢ $14 18h
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch BUY No 75¢ $15 19h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 30h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $14 30h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $14 30h
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 32h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 32h
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 34h
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 34h
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 35h
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 35h
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 37h
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 37h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 80¢ $16 37h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 80¢ $16 37h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? SELL No 89¢ $18 37h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 92¢ $18 37h
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gro SELL No 70¢ $14 42h
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gro BUY No 74¢ $15 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $42 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $43 42h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $11 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 322 history records