Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb074…ca08 other 39 markets active 9h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+5%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$2
sports 26% +$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 54% -9.0%
≤30d 30 +5.3% -4.8% 57% 53% -4.0%
≤90d 30 +5.3% -4.8% 57% 53% -4.0%
all 30 +5.3% -4.8% 57% 53% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 53% -4.0%
10% -13.9% 47% -13.2%
15% -22.2% 43% -21.6%
20% -29.8% 27% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)30 / 39
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $1 +$3 +268%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 6d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 31¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.39 · official $13.39 (match) · 58 history records