Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb076…7d47 other 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$47
sports 24% −$19
politics 8% −$5
culture 6% −$8
economics 6% −$4
crypto 6% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage138d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $289 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $216 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $637 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $135 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $548 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $515 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $377 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $470 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $302 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $284 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $366 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $222 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $537 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $614 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $396 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $212 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $57 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 4h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 6h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 8h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 9h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 11h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 12h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 13h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $5 13h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $20 15h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 16h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 18h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 19h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 21h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 22h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $58 24h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $58 26h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 31h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 33h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 36h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 36h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 38h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.13 · official $57.13 (match) · 1390 history records