Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B0 0xb077…8fe8 sports 527 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$126,235 (-15%) realized −$124,777 · open −$1,458
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%263W / 262L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,593per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$3,564est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 134d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$49,494
crypto 6% −$3,865
politics 0% −$1,512
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 53% -14.2%
≤30d 146 -7.0% -15.8% 48% 48% -17.7%
≤90d 146 -7.0% -15.8% 48% 48% -17.7%
all 525 -6.9% -15.7% 50% 49% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 49% -15.3%
10% -23.8% 47% -23.4%
15% ← realistic here -31.2% 45% -30.8%
20% -37.9% 41% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,963) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,294 vs −$1,503 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$1,474
Realized−$124,777
Unrealized−$1,458
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses263 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$3,564
Open positions2
Markets (closed)525 / 527
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$1,593
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 50¢ 50¢ $1,458 $1,473 +$15 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 45¢ 0¢ $1,474 $2 −$1,473 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2,579 +$2,905 +113%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $1,011 +$575 +57%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1,498 −$1,480 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $1,496 −$1,474 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,282 +$1,715 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,999 −$1,973 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,200 +$1,897 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,500 +$1,141 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,881 −$1,881 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,490 +$1,836 +123%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1,996 +$1,479 +74%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,137 +$2,858 +134%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $1,502 −$1,502 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2,501 −$2,501 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,536 +$1,487 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,493 +$2,502 +100%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $1,497 −$1,497 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,474 −$2,474 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2,509 +$2,576 +103%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $1,490 +$984 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,411 −$1,411 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $1,490 −$1,490 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2,032 −$2,032 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3,081 −$3,081 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1,500 +$1,291 +86%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,515 +$735 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,500 +$1,009 +67%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1,716 +$745 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,434 +$283 +20%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $1,763 +$670 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1,522 +$1,242 +82%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $2,001 +$2,023 +101%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,500 +$1,577 +105%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,582 +$949 +60%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,474 +$1,080 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,146 −$2,146 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,011 −$2,011 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $2,601 −$2,601 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,039 −$2,039 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,416 −$2,416 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $1,603 +$900 +56%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $1,828 +$1,271 +70%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 11 $1,513 +$1,317 +87%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $1,514 +$628 +42%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,511 +$1,862 +123%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $2,247 +$1,414 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $448 0m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $148 1m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $35 4m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $10 5m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $46 6m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $1 8m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $152 8m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $154 8m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $59 9m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $10 9m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $67 10m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $2 10m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $331 11m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 100¢ $5,484 15m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $229 57m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $769 58m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $11 58m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $9 58m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $1,500 58m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $17 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $1,586 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 63¢ $1,011 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $1,499 3h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 61¢ $1,498 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 19h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,492 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,474.38 · official $1,474.38 (match) · 3500 history records