Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb078…bf50 crypto 1183 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,166 (+6%) realized +$1,166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%591W / 590L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$367
14 days+$250
30 days+$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$538
other 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -3.7% -12.8% 51% 50% -1.9%
≤30d 1021 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 48% -6.7%
≤90d 1181 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 46% -7.0%
all 1181 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 46% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 46% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 43% -15.9%
15% -29.1% 40% -24.0%
20% -36.1% 38% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses591 / 590
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1181 / 1183
History coverage52d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$36 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $153 −$137 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $70 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$34 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$29 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $21 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $40 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $88 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $34 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $68 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $1.54 (match) · 2915 history records