Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb078…289e crypto 484 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$931 (-3%) realized −$929 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%250W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$310
7 days−$334
14 days−$1,373
30 days−$1,143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$754
other 26% −$894
sports 16% −$25
politics 0% −$2
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -7.6% -16.4% 56% 49% -17.1%
≤30d 214 -15.2% -23.3% 52% 44% -16.3%
≤90d 478 -15.8% -23.8% 52% 46% -13.5%
all 478 -15.8% -23.8% 52% 46% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 46% -13.5%
10% -31.1% 38% -21.8%
15% -37.8% 29% -29.3%
20% -43.9% 19% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$44 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$929
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses250 / 228
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions5
Markets (closed)478 / 484
History coverage239d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 98¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 78¢ 66¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Yes 60¢ 36¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $230 −$228 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $36 +$15 +42%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$21 +42%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $20 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$19 +61%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$43 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$101 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$17 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$79 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $25 +$13 +51%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$16 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$7 -43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $56 +$30 +54%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$7 +26%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $101 +$45 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -81%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $122 +$126 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $10 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 55¢ $101 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 12h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 12h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $8 12h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 12h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 12h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $51 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 33¢ $1 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $1 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $3 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $15 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $18 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $72 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Team to Take First Corner SELL Sweden 99¢ $33 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $30 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $20 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Team to Take First Corner BUY Sweden 60¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.17 · official $238.26 · 1242 history records