Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb07a…60a0 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$106 (-17%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$96
sports 14% −$11
crypto 14% $0
politics 2% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 0% -27.1%
all 13 -9.3% -18.0% 38% 0% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -25.7%
10% -25.8% 0% -32.8%
15% -33.0% 0% -39.3%
20% -39.6% 0% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage120d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $131 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 08 $288 −$95 -33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? May 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $9 −$1 -12%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $47 −$7 -15%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 28 $10 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $131 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $131 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $57 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $57 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $136 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $136 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 100d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 110d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 114d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records