Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B0 0xb07b…541d other 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+2%) realized +$300 · open −$187
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%66W / 39L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$130
14 days+$130
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$69
other 29% −$129
sports 7% +$79
politics 1% −$5
finance 0% +$5
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +25.4% +13.5% 70% 50% +9.7%
≤30d 37 +17.2% +6.1% 76% 32% -6.6%
≤90d 51 -3.4% -12.6% 63% 29% -7.5%
all 105 +1.1% -8.5% 63% 35% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 35% -6.3%
10% -17.3% 26% -15.3%
15% -25.3% 21% -23.5%
20% -32.6% 15% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$617
Realized+$300
Unrealized−$187
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses66 / 39
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)105 / 112
History coverage234d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 61¢ 46¢ $766 $572 −$194 (-25%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 88¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+41%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+50%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 63¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 46¢ 27¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +43%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $323 −$3 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 16 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $43 +$6 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $16 +$3 +22%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$145 +290%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +104%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$17 +126%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $197 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $219 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 23 $3,015 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? May 23 $0 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? May 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 23 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 23 $2 +$2 +154%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? May 22 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 21 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 21 $9 +$6 +61%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 20 $19 $0 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 19 $3 +$2 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Mar 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 46¢ $82 10m
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 46¢ $93 30m
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 53¢ $74 2h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 53¢ $76 3h
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 23h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 74¢ $444 34h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $320 2d
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 64¢ $323 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL No 95¢ $9 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $9 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $9 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.62 · official $616.62 (match) · 400 history records