Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B0 0xb07d…23dc crypto 623 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,041 (+24%) realized +$4,005 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%322W / 343L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 163d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$3
weather 12% +$1,166
tech 8% +$897
other 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -30.7% -37.3% 14% 14% +14.9%
≤30d 73 -16.3% -24.2% 21% 21% +19.7%
≤90d 114 -20.1% -27.7% 19% 18% +44.6%
all 665 +9.2% -1.2% 48% 43% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 43% +2.3%
10% -10.7% 39% -7.5%
15% -19.3% 32% -16.4%
20% -27.2% 26% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$4,005
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses322 / 343
Open positions2
Markets (closed)665 / 623
History coverage163d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Yes 48¢ 58¢ $244 $296 +$53 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 284 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 25 $0 −$3 -2770%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$5 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on October 31? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$6 -854%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$7 -29042%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$3 -504%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$7 -348%
Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $0 +$35 +23430%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Security" during the UK state banquet on September 17? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$5 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tencent have the second best AI model on October 31? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$2 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$8 -625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$5 -170%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$14 -1576%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$13 -123%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on October 31? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$4 -118%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$5 -106%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on October 31? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$10 -167%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $189 −$183 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $36 −$34 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $187 +$208 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $42 −$41 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $261 +$321 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 46¢ $86 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 46¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 34¢ $72 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 46¢ $187 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 97¢ $97 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.43 · official $301.54 · 3500 history records