Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb07e…2b92 sports 342 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,650 (-14%) realized −$8,859 · open −$1,791
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%133W / 134L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$736est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$12,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,122
7 days−$11,122
14 days−$11,122
30 days−$11,122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$11,009
other 15% −$1,961
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 -24.5% -31.7% 48% 36% -28.7%
≤30d 193 -24.5% -31.7% 48% 36% -28.7%
≤90d 267 -18.7% -26.5% 50% 36% -26.2%
all 267 -18.7% -26.5% 50% 36% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 36% -26.2%
10% -33.5% 27% -33.3%
15% -39.9% 18% -39.7%
20% -45.8% 13% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$150 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$12,021
Realized−$8,859
Unrealized−$1,791
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses133 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$736
Open positions75
Markets (closed)267 / 342
History coverage65d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53¢ 52¢ $728 $715 −$12 (-2%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 76¢ 100¢ $501 $659 +$158 (+32%)
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Rooster 57¢ 92¢ $371 $600 +$230 (+62%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $522 $519 −$3 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $395 $393 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ 100¢ $238 $374 +$136 (+57%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ 100¢ $223 $370 +$148 (+66%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ 100¢ $148 $347 +$199 (+135%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 97¢ 96¢ $339 $337 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C INFURITY Gaming 80¢ 100¢ $245 $305 +$60 (+24%)
Scotland leading at halftime? No 84¢ 84¢ $299 $299 +$1 (+0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $296 $293 −$3 (-1%)
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Roberto Carballes Baena 67¢ 100¢ $194 $287 +$93 (+48%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 48¢ $250 $269 +$19 (+8%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Iraq 52¢ 52¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 81¢ 81¢ $249 $251 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Brazil 99¢ 99¢ $248 $248 −$0 (-0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $248 $247 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 82¢ $250 $246 −$4 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Nikola Bartunkova 47¢ 100¢ $107 $226 +$120 (+112%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 73¢ 72¢ $223 $222 −$2 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 52¢ $222 $216 −$6 (-3%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal 22¢ 24¢ $199 $212 +$14 (+7%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Over 64¢ 68¢ $197 $209 +$12 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $225 −$84 -37%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $150 +$14 +9%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $75 +$14 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $39 +$57 +146%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $478 −$99 -21%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $155 +$47 +31%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $789 +$197 +25%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,501 +$43 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,506 +$238 +16%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,510 +$438 +29%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,519 −$1,519 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $898 −$333 -37%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $375 −$39 -10%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $676 +$116 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,759 −$101 -4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $525 +$58 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $75 +$38 +50%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$2 +17%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $19 +$11 +60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $54 +$49 +91%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 17 $150 +$68 +45%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $1,573 −$784 -50%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $75 +$70 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $391 −$254 -65%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 +$14 +34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $254 −$5 -2%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $40 +$12 +30%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 17 $80 +$27 +33%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Jun 17 $96 +$21 +22%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 17 $154 +$50 +33%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $199 −$199 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $289 −$190 -66%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $2,290 +$502 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 82¢ $3 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $18 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $75 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $75 2m
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 2 Winner BUY So:sweet 38¢ $55 3m
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 72¢ $75 20m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 80¢ $11 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 80¢ $75 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 80¢ $75 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $30 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 20¢ $11 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 67¢ $46 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 18¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 22¢ $75 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 79¢ $75 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 27¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 92¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 82¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 22¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 70¢ $75 1h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY Gen.G Global Academy 5¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 57¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 50¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 53¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $75 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 50¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 49¢ $75 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 33¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 75¢ $75 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,020.57 · official $12,020.62 (match) · 1411 history records