Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb07e…e049 politics 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% $0
other 20% $0
world 15% $0
crypto 11% $0
culture 8% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 27 +0.2% -9.4% 44% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.31 per $1 lost it wins $5.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage267d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 10 $10 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Dec 19 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Dec 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 4h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 158d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $19 180d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $6 194d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $6 236d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 237d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 246d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $10 246d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $10 247d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $9 247d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY No 97¢ $18 248d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? SELL No 85¢ $19 248d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 85¢ $19 248d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $20 248d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $9 251d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 251d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 258d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $19 258d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $19 260d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $19 260d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $19 260d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $21 260d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.75 · official $27.75 (match) · 81 history records