Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb07f…1343 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$12
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$8
other 25% +$1
sports 11% −$10
politics 11% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -17.1% -25.0% 0% 0% -26.5%
≤30d 26 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 74 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 76 -2.9% -12.1% 36% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 49
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage489d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $51 −$17 -34%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $38 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $135 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $127 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $95 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $86 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $130 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $76 +$3 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $81 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $23 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $45 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $24 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $37 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $65 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $74 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $73 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $2 $0 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $168 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $43 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $38 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $2 $0 +10%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $43 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $26 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $50 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $48 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $10 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $9 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $23 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $22 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 332 history records