Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B0 0xb07f…d340 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$15 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$1
weather 12% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 43% -11.6%
≤30d 29 -10.0% -18.6% 52% 41% -11.6%
≤90d 29 -10.0% -18.6% 52% 41% -11.6%
all 29 -10.0% -18.6% 52% 41% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 41% -11.6%
10% -26.4% 24% -20.1%
15% -33.5% 21% -27.8%
20% -40.0% 14% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 42¢ 52¢ $53 $66 +$13 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 65¢ 48¢ $47 $34 −$12 (-27%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 40¢ 60¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+49%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 61¢ 96¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$7 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$17 +74%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$19 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$2 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$4 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$52 -63%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$4 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$22 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$36 +118%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 10? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 08 $9 −$5 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$3 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $7 −$6 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 8? Jun 08 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $11 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.37 · official $112.23 · 148 history records