Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb082…ed93 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate10%9W / 84L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$8
politics 30% −$6
sports 19% +$24
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 93 +1.1% -8.5% 10% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×12.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses9 / 84
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage131d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $168 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $367 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $176 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $172 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $394 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $366 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $172 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 01 $213 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $325 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $414 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $174 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $422 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $374 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $148 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Mar 29 $203 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $367 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $211 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 12d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 16d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 24d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $168 25d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $168 27d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 32d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $193 36d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $196 61d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $196 62d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $154 62d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $154 62d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $144 62d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $144 62d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $171 63d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $171 63d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 63d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 63d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 63d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 63d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $178 63d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $178 63d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 63d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 63d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $178 63d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $178 64d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $174 64d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 272 history records