Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B0 0xb082…804e crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$16
14 days+$32
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$76
world 35% +$49
finance 4% −$2
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +58.7% +43.6% 100% 100% +42.1%
≤30d 16 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 50% -37.3%
≤90d 35 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 51% -13.6%
all 37 -3.8% -13.0% 51% 49% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 49% -13.8%
10% -21.3% 38% -22.0%
15% -28.9% 35% -29.6%
20% -35.9% 24% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage92d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 27 $23 +$13 +56%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $6 +$3 +61%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $13 −$3 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +173%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +131%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $40 −$16 -40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $24 +$4 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $13 +$9 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $74 −$10 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $43 +$35 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 14 $24 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 14 $36 +$11 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $36 +$7 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $21 +$8 +37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 04 $15 +$6 +39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 19 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $7 −$5 -76%
Spread: Clippers (-16.5) Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Kris Dunn: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $1 +$1 +104%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 30 $1 $0 +9%
Clippers vs. Bucks: 1H Moneyline Mar 30 $1 $0 +18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 27 $5 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 61¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 61¢ $23 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 93¢ $9 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $14 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 53¢ $6 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY No 30¢ $9 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY No 56¢ $13 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 34d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 78¢ $43 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL No 22¢ $9 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $40 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $36 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY No 69¢ $30 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $23 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $47 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records