Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B0 0xb083…d6a5 crypto 719 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$548 (-5%) realized −$269 · open −$279
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%329W / 389L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$12
14 days+$49
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$86
sports 28% +$57
other 13% −$426
world 11% −$80
economics 1% −$52
culture 0% +$19
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -21.4% -28.9% 45% 39% -10.7%
≤30d 195 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 43% -7.3%
≤90d 543 -29.2% -36.0% 32% 30% -34.3%
all 718 -6.2% -15.1% 46% 43% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 43% -12.7%
10% -23.2% 42% -21.1%
15% -30.7% 37% -28.7%
20% -37.5% 30% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$269
Unrealized−$279
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses329 / 389
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)718 / 719
History coverage105d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $501 $222 −$279 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 163 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$23 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$20 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $22 −$21 -96%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Denis Petak Jun 27 $20 +$13 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$27 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 27 $167 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$11 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$13 +93%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$29 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$30 +97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $23 +$16 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$43 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$13 +50%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $19 +$17 +89%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$33 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$13 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$32 +344%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $30 +$12 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $6 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $17 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $22 6h
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Denis Petak BUY Lucio Ratti 60¢ $20 9h
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9h
Will Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 9h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 42¢ $110 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $29 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.12 · official $222.12 (match) · 2021 history records