Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B0 0xb084…e805 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$251 (+49%) realized +$261 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$107
sports 48% +$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +16.0% +5.0% 25% 25% +64.3%
≤30d 4 +16.0% +5.0% 25% 25% +64.3%
≤90d 4 +16.0% +5.0% 25% 25% +64.3%
all 4 +16.0% +5.0% 25% 25% +64.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 25% +64.3%
10% -5.1% 25% +48.6%
15% -14.3% 25% +34.2%
20% -22.7% 25% +21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$279 vs −$40 · ×7.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$261
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 44¢ 44¢ $107 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-3.5) United States 6¢ 4¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $77 +$279 +364%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $108 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 6h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 6¢ $51 6h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $356 17h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 18h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $77 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.52 · official $296.52 (match) · 12 history records