Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb08a…c850 crypto 154 markets active 6d ago coverage 236d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%79W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$247
14 days+$247
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$526
other 20% +$356
politics 17% +$34
tech 4% +$219
sports 1% −$94
world 0% −$33
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +46.1% +32.2% 100% 50% +26.9%
≤30d 2 +46.1% +32.2% 100% 50% +26.9%
≤90d 8 -5.1% -14.2% 50% 38% +14.6%
all 153 +23.7% +12.0% 52% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 41% -10.4%
10% +1.2% 27% -19.0%
15% -8.5% 20% -26.8%
20% -17.5% 17% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$31 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses79 / 74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage236d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $450 $478 +$28 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $265 +$235 +89%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 12 $348 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 24 $31 +$4 +13%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Apr 05 $55 −$4 -7%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 31 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 21 $8 +$12 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 08 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 Feb 25 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Trump say "Norway" during the State of the Union address? Feb 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $570 +$230 +40%
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET Feb 05 $4 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2PM ET Jan 31 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by March 3 Jan 31 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1PM ET Jan 21 $279 −$186 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 3AM ET Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12PM ET Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5PM ET Jan 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7AM ET Jan 16 $70 +$110 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 3PM ET Jan 09 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7AM ET Jan 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1PM ET Jan 01 $188 −$183 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 9AM ET Jan 01 $27 +$14 +51%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $350 +$53 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 10AM ET Dec 30 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5PM ET Dec 29 $58 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 6PM ET Dec 28 $103 −$56 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 4PM ET Dec 28 $30 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 2PM ET Dec 28 $232 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 3PM ET Dec 28 $94 +$25 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11AM ET Dec 28 $80 +$28 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1PM ET Dec 28 $139 +$33 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 12PM ET Dec 28 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 8AM ET Dec 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5AM ET Dec 28 $112 +$71 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 4AM ET Dec 28 $41 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 3PM ET Dec 25 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 11AM ET Dec 25 $326 −$56 -17%
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? Dec 25 $58 −$56 -97%
Will The Pitt win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards? Dec 25 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 10AM ET Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5PM ET Dec 24 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4PM ET Dec 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 41¢ $41 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 56¢ $112 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 56¢ $51 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 56¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 56¢ $8 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 56¢ $13 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 56¢ $25 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 56¢ $13 5d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $360 5d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $348 48d
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $450 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $35 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 54d
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 74d
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 74d
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 74d
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $10 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 102d
Will Trump say "Norway" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 113d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 87¢ $54 113d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 87¢ $33 113d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 BUY Yes 80¢ $160 113d
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.50 · official $477.50 (match) · 2143 history records