Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb08b…e878 other 1115 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$372 (-7%) realized −$366 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%608W / 499L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$140
14 days−$178
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$260
other 32% +$42
world 1% +$15
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -13.0% -21.3% 56% 56% -23.0%
≤30d 263 +4.1% -5.8% 66% 65% -12.9%
≤90d 908 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 58% -11.6%
all 1107 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 55% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 55% -12.8%
10% -18.3% 51% -21.1%
15% -26.2% 48% -28.7%
20% -33.4% 45% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$366
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses608 / 499
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1107 / 1115
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs GenOne 64¢ 100¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+56%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Infinite 56¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Amaru Gaming 80¢ 40¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Oxuji Esports 68¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$13 +67%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $20 +$6 +32%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$5 +25%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $30 −$14 -47%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $20 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $30 −$12 -38%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$4 +19%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$8 +42%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +35%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$7 +35%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +85%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$22 +108%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $10 +$6 +61%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$10 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 80¢ $19 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 80¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 56¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 56¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY GenOne 64¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 68¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 62¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 60¢ $20 4h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 76¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 50¢ $20 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $10 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $20 9h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 80¢ $20 18h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 66¢ $20 24h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 62¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 60¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 82¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 82¢ $8 28h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 82¢ $5 28h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 82¢ $6 28h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 54¢ $10 30h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 68¢ $3 31h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 68¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 68¢ $15 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $20 33h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 84¢ $20 35h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 84¢ $15 41h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 84¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.15 · official $112.15 (match) · 3500 history records