Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B0 0xb08c…57a1 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,213 (-20%) realized −$1,197 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$677per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$1,463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$279
7 days+$101
14 days+$140
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$124
sports 9% −$546
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.6% +0.1% 75% 75% -6.9%
≤30d 6 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 67% -18.1%
≤90d 6 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 67% -18.1%
all 6 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 67% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 67% -18.1%
10% -24.1% 50% -25.9%
15% -31.4% 17% -33.1%
20% -38.2% 17% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$821 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,463
Realized−$1,197
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage19d
Avg bet$677
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $829 $815 −$13 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $650 $647 −$3 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $950 +$818 +86%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $1,122 −$1,097 -98%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,103 +$283 +26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $315 +$97 +31%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $276 +$39 +14%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 11 $550 −$546 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,462.57 · official $1,731.05 · 13 history records