Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb08d…a40c world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$4
other 20% $0
sports 8% −$1
weather 6% +$14
tech 4% $0
politics 2% +$2
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -7.8% -16.6% 21% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -7.8% -16.6% 21% 0% -10.1%
all 37 -8.1% -16.9% 51% 3% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 3% -8.0%
10% -24.8% 3% -16.8%
15% -32.1% 3% -24.9%
20% -38.8% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage481d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 83¢ 81¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $73 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $91 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $43 −$2 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $18 +$2 +10%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 21 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend? Apr 02 $28 $0 +1%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $30 $0 -1%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $29 +$1 +4%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 23 $29 $0 +1%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 21 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 27? Mar 20 $16 +$13 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $35 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $21 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $14 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $12 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $12 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.02 · official $34.02 (match) · 110 history records