Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb091…2017 crypto 663 markets active 4d ago coverage 171d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 170d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$9,035 (-12%) realized −$9,035 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate69%457W / 206L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 171d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$1,428
sports 21% −$716
other 6% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.0% -10.4% 70% 50% -17.3%
≤30d 60 -1.3% -10.7% 68% 48% -15.6%
≤90d 214 -1.0% -10.4% 78% 50% -13.1%
all 663 +1.4% -8.2% 69% 51% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 51% -12.0%
10% -17.0% 29% -20.4%
15% -25.0% 18% -28.1%
20% -32.4% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$85 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,035
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses457 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)663 / 663
History coverage171d ⚠
Avg bet$117
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 663 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $7 +$8 +114%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $12 −$5 -42%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $9 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$11 -54%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $17 +$2 +10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $16 +$1 +8%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $12 +$5 +40%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$1 +13%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $6 +$2 +34%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $9 −$5 -50%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $68 −$42 -62%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $37 +$13 +36%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $48 −$48 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $34 +$14 +40%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $29 +$6 +20%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $55 −$27 -48%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $40 +$15 +38%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $36 +$4 +11%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $34 +$2 +7%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $27 +$3 +10%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $26 +$2 +6%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $21 +$5 +23%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Cabral/Mektic vs Hidalgo/Trhac Jun 10 $17 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $116 −$83 -72%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $120 +$13 +11%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $114 +$8 +7%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $101 +$13 +13%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $4 −$3 -77%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 May 20 $17 +$3 +20%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $16 +$1 +5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 20 $9 +$7 +74%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 19 $16 −$12 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 19 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 19 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 19 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 19 $5 −$3 -66%
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ameri May 19 $30 −$16 -53%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? May 19 $63 −$4 -6%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 19 $53 −$3 -6%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? May 19 $125 −$112 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 65¢ $15 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 98¢ $15 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 45¢ $7 4d
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo SELL Tristan Boyer 52¢ $7 4d
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 89¢ $12 5d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 81¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 Ares 42¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Ares 90¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Overtake 90¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Overtake 90¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 73¢ $15 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- SELL $0 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 91¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 91¢ $10 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $18 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 91¢ $17 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- BUY 24¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $18 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $16 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nicolas Kicker 100¢ $16 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 71¢ $12 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $12 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 87¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 88¢ $9 6d
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch SELL Dali Blanch 100¢ $9 6d
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch BUY Dali Blanch 95¢ $9 6d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G SELL Saigon Warriors 100¢ $9 6d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G BUY Saigon Warriors 74¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records